活动断层研究进展及其科学前沿问题讨论

This study reviewed the approval and initiation processes and major research contents of China's active fault-related projects, such as the urban active fault survey projects, large-scale mapping programs of active faults, and the earthquake hazard assessment of active faults in key earthquake monitoring and prevention areas. By combining the scientific investigation results of the surface rupture zones induced by strong earthquakes over the past 20 years, this study elaborated on significant advances achieved in the following aspects: the survey and positioning techniques for concealed active faults under strong-noise and weak-signal conditions, the quantitative identification techniques for fault activity, theories and methods for earthquake hazard assessment, whole-process multi-source data management techniques, and the construction of technical standard systems for active fault surveys. Furthermore, this study proposed a novel dynamic uplift model of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the cascading rupture mechanism of active faults and the theory on the origin of strong earthquakes they induce, earthquake rupture localization characteristics and related setback theory, and geological identification indicators for high-magnitude earthquakes and their application in determining high-magnitude earthquake hazard zones. As a result, it developed new theories, methods, and concepts for slide behavior and setbacks concerning active faults, earthquake hazard prevention, and earthquake monitoring and prediction. Besides, this study explored some scientific and technical problems that need to be urgently solved in terms of active fault surveys and research, including the uncertainty of quantitative parameters of fault activity, the cascading rupture conditions of adjacent fault segments and the magnitude prediction of great earthquakes, the quantitative evolutionary characteristics of geological indicators, the simulation of strong ground motion and related earthquake disaster prediction based on a 3D active fault model, and the faulting resistance of major projects across active faults. Last, this study proposed that China should further enhance the survey and mapping of active faults, as well as the management of related results, and maintain internationally leading advantages in urban active fault survey, large-scale mapping, and the exploration of relationships between deep and shallow structures, thereby playing a leading role in international earthquake disaster prevention, along with earthquake monitoring and prediction with physical significance.